Roto Savants

Hot Stove: Royals-White Sox

2009-11-05T12:45:00.000-05:00

Royals trade Mark Teahen to the White Sox for Chris Getz and Josh Fields

So the White Sox found their replacement to Jermaine Dye? All they had to do was give up their every day second baseman and a player who had never made a true impact on the Sox.

So as difficult as it is to try to get into Kenny Williams mind, let's try play this line of reasoning:

Teahen can play 3B or RF really for this team. His defense would probably be better than Dye's but not better than Gordon Beckham's.
You could play with an infield of Teahen-Beckham-Ramirez-Konerko around the diamond. Alexei Ramirez's defense at short is probably a factor in moving him to second.
You could acquire a free agent third baseman, use the same infield and replace Dye with Teahen. Though the White Sox will need to get a big bat at 3B to replace that, oh and they have Alex Rios now who hit .199/.229/.301 in 41 games in Chicago.
Judging from MLB Trade Rumors' list of free agent third basemen, the kind of player needed to grab a real offensive impact would be difficult. Chone Figgins would be an impact player but other than that do these names strike you: Adam Kennedy, Melvin Mora, Mark DeRosa, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Adrian Beltre. The only listed free agent under 30 in the MLB Trade Rumors list is failed Cardinals prospect Brian Barden. So the White Sox would have to skew old at another position to fill third.
It's that or maybe invest in a free agent outfielder or two. This is probably the route to go considering there is a lot more depth in free agents in the outfield than at third.

Let's say for argument's sake they re-sign Scott Podsednik and grab another outfielder/DH type. I mean they could be a landing spot for Vladimir Guerrero. This team needs another player who can hit before we even consider them being a contender. It wouldn't shock me to see either of those two moves happen because the White Sox skew very old as it is. If this team stays in tact as is or close to it, I think we're looking at a team similar to the Giants for part of this decade: old players, very slow runners (minus maybe one or two players) and ok pitching. That might win the Central but I wouldn't bank on it.

Who knows what this means for the Royals. They probably have a few moves left in them for the offseason. Dayton Moore, now technically secure through 2014, can make the deals he want to ensure his long term plan. Other than the chance of having Yunieski Betancourt and Chris Getz be your up the middle combo, sign me up for season tickets now.

Hot Stove: Pirates-Rays Trade

2009-11-05T11:30:00.000-05:00

We already have two trades. Here's the first.

Rays trade Akinori Iwamura to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jesse Chavez
Chavez is a decent haul for the Rays who didn't have a spot anymore for Iwamura. Zobrist should now be enshrined as the permanent second basemen, unless the Rays want to push him out to right field and sign another second baseman. For fantasy purposes this means Zobrist will be getting a lot of at bats in 2010.

Meanwhile this might not mean more moves are coming, but it does mean a few things fantasy-wise.

It probably means Delwyn Young will be pushed back into the outfield mix.
Brandon Moss is not a part of the future as a starter.
Their commitment to Andy LaRoche will waver as long as Pedro Alvarez can give them confidence in him next year.

The Rays get a good haul in Chavez. Chavez brought his WHIP and hit rate down from last year and has showed signs of being a good reliever. He might be an option in very deep leagues, hopefully the Rays acquire a closer, then it will be even better.

Rotosavants' Top 100(+2) for 2010: Part 3

2009-11-05T07:00:00.001-05:00

25. Dan Haren (Aaron Murray)
Haren has really cemented his position as an elite starter over the past two seasons. While he definitely got lucky in the BABIP department this year (.280) he also succeeded in upping his K/9 and dropping his BB/9, and consequently posted an outstanding 5.87 K/BB. I'd take him here over Halladay because Haren has a better K/9 and over Vazquez and Verlander because Haren is probably the least likely of the three to have an off year.

Troy: This was my big pick last year and his control has maintained. His strike outs aren't elite, but the ability to keep a K/BB over 5.00 for two straight years is just awesome. Would be willing to make him my ace again in 2010 if he slips to the third round.

26. Kevin Youkilis (Lee Perrault)
While there were a couple riskier picks I could have nominated here, I figured the safest third basemen available deserved the nod.

Youk has increased his wOBA for 4 straight years (.357, .373. 402, .413), and if not for a short DL stint in 2009, he also should have posted his highest R and RBI totals as well.

My biggest concern with Youk is his ability to finally eclipse 30 homeruns, but when you look at the other options in this stage, you're seeing a huge group of injury risks (Reyes, Votto), players with inexplicable warning signs (Wright's K% and BABIP), and breakout candidates whose regression to the mean we need to plan for (Zobrist).

It was tough to not pick my 2009 man crush (Votto), but early picks require being safe, and third base is showing early signs in 2010 of being top heavy and shallow.

Kevin: I was going to argue against it being shallow, but I know I'd rather have one of the top 6 guys or so, than anyone below that point. The middle tier isn't bad fantasy-wise, but the gap between the top tier is pretty big. If you wait on 3B, you'd better pull off some magic to make up for it.

27. Jacoby Ellsbury (Ryan A. Restivo)
Career highs in hits, doubles, triples, RBI, stolen bases and walks. Not bad entering the age-26 season, this is one Red Sox draftee who has paid off tremendously. I think you're going to get some of the same numbers for the next 3 years from Ellsbury. I can't see any power improvement even with the doubles, you have to think some of them are Fenway aided. The difference between him and Chone Figgins though, is the high level output of steals. You're paying for the super high steals, so he better play 150 games!

Aaron: I do my best to disagree with all of Ryan's picks but it's hard to argue with locking up a category at this point in the draft. 2009 was also Ellsbury's best year in both BB% and K% so maybe he's on his way to a .360+ OBP which can only help his RBI and R totals, and playing time.

28. Ben Zobrist (Aaron Murray)
Zobrist was a pleasant surprise during a disappointing year for the Rays as well as maybe the most valuable waiver pickup in all of fantasy sports for '09. Will he repeat his dominance in '10? Probably not. His second half this year tailed off from a 1.012 OPS to a .886 - maybe he was wearing down in his first full major league season. I wanted to pick Pedroia here if only to reward him for a solid jump in his BB/9 numbers but I think Zobrist has the better upside - 20/100/100/15/.300 seems like a pretty reasonable projection and perhaps a bit conservative in the HR and Steals categories. For a guy with those numbers to have 2B eligibility and possible 30/30 upside I'd love to get him in the 3rd round.

Lee: Zobrist's expected regression from last year has to come in play, but he still looks to be solid 20/20 player, and that's rare in middle infielders. So long as he holds onto that 2B tag, he's an elite option up the middle.

Kevin: I'd like him more if he had the full 2B/SS/OF eligibility in 2010. You have to have just the slightest skepticism on guys who bust out of nowhere at a later age (I'm thinking of Nelson Cruz too). Give them the benefit of the doubt, but don't put it all on the line for guys like this. And I personally wouldn't load up on more than one of them, at least early in a draft.

29. Roy Halladay (Kevin Jebens)
A lot of Toronto players seem to fly under the radar (I'm thinking Hill and Lind here), but Hallady certainly doesn't, and for good reason. Over the last two years, all he's done is give you great ERA (2.78, 2.79) and WHIP (1.05, 1.13), and a ton of innings, which makes the impact of his ERA/WHIP even more important. Add in 18 complete games and 6 shutouts in '08-'09 (which can be bonuses in points leagues), and 414 strikeouts, and you know what you're getting with this guy. I've gotta believe that if he's ever traded out of Toronto, he could be even better, because while Toronto's actually a decent club now, he'll be certain to move to a perennial contender.

Troy: Another control pitcher who wins you ERA and WHIP, but the wins and strike outs drag him out of the elite picks. He's still a solid number 1 for your team. Much like Haren he has maintained a K/BB over 5.00 for two years. Lock him up.

30. Adam Lind (Troy Patterson)
I already made a few posts about the 2009 season of Adam Lind, but in case you missed them, they are here and here. His defense is not very good, but thankfully he hasn't been relegated to full time DH yet and still holds outfield eligibility. As long as he has that he looks to be a force with good numbers across the board except for steals. I debated Jason Bay at this spot but opted for the batting average over the steals.

Lee: Does Bay's hot/cold act from last year bother anybody else? This is why I like Lind also. Players that seem to fluctuate sharply during the year always give me pause. Granted, most of Bay's problem was a rough BABIP in the summer, but that shouldn't be affecting his power unless he's not hitting flyballs, and that wasn't Bay's problem.

31. Adam Dunn (Lee Perrault)
Man Crush time!

While I could again go after upside, I choose to point towards the only 40+ HR hitter left on the board. Adam gets a lot of flack for his shoddy AVG, and that Nationals lineup will always limit his RBIs and Rs. While Dunn's Rs took a hit this year (81), he did eclipse 100 RBIs and was still top 20 in that category.

What I like about Adam is the 10% jump in O-Contact%. Just like I said about Mark Reynolds last year, if Dunn can continue to make contact outside of the zone more reliably, all those balls forced into play will fall into hits from time to time, unlike the strikeout that has a 0% chance of a hit, right?

I've been making a point to keep giving you the safe picks. Are you sitting around the middle-late 3rd round and don't want to make your reach pick yet? That's where Adam Dunn comes in.

Dunn's shelf life is my only concern. Eventually, these three-true-outcome guys all turn into Richie Sexson. Dunn probably has a couple more years until his breakdown, unless the Nationals move him to the AL so he can just be a DH and leverage all his value.

Aaron: Dunn's value is about as league dependent as it gets. In an OBP league he should provide borderline elite numbers and is often undervalued, in a BA league he's still a great value and often a bit underrated, while in H2H leagues Dunn may in fact be overrated because while his year-to-year numbers are the definition of consistency, his week-to-week numbers are the opposite. A guy who helps you win big one week but drags your team down then next is usually less valuable than a guy who gives you solid numbers in both - and obviously in leagues that penalize K's his value drops like a stone.

32. Jason Werth (Aaron Murray)
There's everything to love about Werth, power - 21.1 and 19.3 HR/FB% in '08 and '09 respectively, speed - 20 steals in each of the last two seasons, and a powerful lineup in which to hit. His FB% jumped from 38 to 44.4 this year and his career steal percentage is 89% so count on 30-35 HR, 20-25 Steals. If he really gets comfortable running more and can maintain his FB% he'll be one of the few guys who could make a run at 40-40 next year.

Kevin: I gotta balk at the 40/40 ceiling. I just don't think he'll go from 20 to 40. The HR production is solid, though, so I wouldn't gamble against a 40/20 year, maybe 40/25 at most. Of course, that still makes him a fantastic investment, and I love having this guy on my team.

Aaron: There's no doubt that 40/40 is a long shot for Werth but based on his success rate I can see a scenario in which he really goes for it if he has a good first half. Remember Canseco in '88? He did it practically on willpower alone. I'd give Werth maybe a 10-15% chance at 40/40 but how many other guys out there have even that kind of shot? It's also interesting to realize that Werth is one of the rare players who would probably steal more bags on a more sabermetrically oriented team since his success rate implies that he's actually hurting his team by not running more.

Lee: I think the only players who can possibly come close to 40/40 are Reynolds, Hanley, and Sizemore. Reynolds has the elite power, but may not get the chances to run. Hanley hasn't topped 40 homers yet, but 30/30 for him isn't much of a stretch. Sizemore needs to (besides being healthy) prove his power is legit. Personally, I think Hanley has the only realistic shot, and I wouldn't bet on it.

33. Aaron Hill (Ryan A. Restivo)
April 4th 2008 Aaron Hill signed a 4 year, $12 million deal. Even though he lost roughly two-thirds of 2008 to a concussion, that deal will still look really well. Hill was progressing from 2007 and broke out into a huge power spike. Hill slugged 40 points better in 2009 than he did in 2007. You can probably expect something in between for next year. I'm okay with 27-30 HR from a premium position like second from Hill. And who knows, maybe his 4-5 steals will help you win your league.

Aaron: I agree that you shouldn't count on 30+ HR from Hill as his HR/FB% in '10 was almost double his career rate but his BABIP was also twenty points below his career mark and he still had a .286 BA. He's a real 4.5 category threat at 2B so don't be afraid to pay for him.

Lee: Are his steals really enough to consider him a 4.5 category player? I don't see much more than Uggla's best season as a comparable to Hill, and #33 overall may be a little optimistic.

34. Joey Votto (Kevin Jebens)
Let's continue with the risky picks. Sure, 1B is deep, as always. Sure, Votto lost time to injury, so some are skeptical, and his 2009 totals don't look good compared to others. But I'm betting on Votto putting up 30-35 HR (thanks, Great American Ball Park), 100+ R and RBI (he reached the low-80s with only 460 AB), and a strong .300+ BA. What's more, he one of the only SB threats from 1B: like Derrek Lee in his prime, I could see 5-10 SB from Votto, with an outside shot at 15.

Troy: I was big on Votto this past season and when he played he was elite, but the ear problems and the extreme grief and anxiety attacks limited his time. The anxiety attacks were largely kept quiet until he returned and were from his father's death. If he can keep himself on the field, expect a big breakout season.

Lee: If healthy, Votto's 2010 should give you the same return on Prince's breakout year. I absolutely love this kid's potential.

35. Andre Ethier(Lee Perrault)
Kevin stole my Votto pick!

But still, nothing wrong with having to fall back on a young hitter in his prime playing around a group of excellent players. Maybe if Joe Torre actually fills his lineup cards out correctly (hint: Matt Kemp bats 2nd), Ethier's bulging RBI numbers can get even more of a boost.

There are a bunch of comparable outfield bats at this spot, but I'll go with the age and upside and increasing BB% and HR/FB% totals Ethier provides than pick a consistent, but aging vet (Manny, Bay).

Kevin: I'm an Ethier fan myself, and I think his BA could get better next year. After all, he hit .300 in 2008. If he puts them together (and he should be able to, with growth), then you're looking at a possible line of .300/100/35/110 if you're lucky.

36. David Wright (Kevin Jebens)
Okay, his power fell off the map. But we've seen him hit 30 HR twice, and he's still a threat for SB, so I feel confident he'll put the two together and be a 30-30 threat again. He hit 5 HR at home and 5 on the road, so Citi Field isn't the immediate explanation for his lack of power, The concussion issue is a bit of a wild card, but I don't it ruining his career or even his 2010 season. Lee had mention Wright's high K% earlier, but bear in mind that he had an excessively high amount of strikeouts in September, after the injury when he was shying away. If he gets his confidence back, that K% should drop back down to his career average. Let's not forget that he was a top-5 pick (and earned it) just two years ago--and he's still on the good side of the age curve.

Aaron: Wright makes me nervous in '10 if only because I can't explain his precipitous drop in HR. If I can't explain it I usually try to keep my distance. According to ESPN park factors Citi Field was only slightly worse at producing HRs than Shea was so I agree that that probably wasn't the culprit but what was? It's also worth noting that Wright posted a typically strong BA in '09 (.307) but he needed a BABIP fifty points above his career mark to do it.

Lee: Yep, something about Citi Field is making me nervous about right handed power bats. Everything he did with that league leading BABIP turns him into a player I'd rather see someone else take a risk on.

Manny Acta's Easy Choice

2009-10-26T14:12:00.009-04:00

There's no doubt about it that Manny Acta was put in a bad situation in Washington. There was no real chance to win and he was fired earlier this year. Yet, as of Saturday night, he was negotiating his next job between two teams: Cleveland and Houston.

Houston, 233-252 over the last 3 years, wanted Acta for 2 years plus an option. Owner Drayton McLane believes the Astros are always a step away from winning it all. Only 2 of the 8 starters in the lineup were under 30 on opening day. This team went 25th in OBP, 25th in HR and 27th in runs in the majors. Roy Oswalt is now on the wrong side of 30 and has increased his ERA over the last 3 years. Oswalt's FIP has also been around 3.80 the last 2 seasons.

I haven't even mentioned that Wandy Rodriguez is your one positive, your ace for the future. Jose Valverde is gone as a free agent this year and who knows who the next closer in Houston will be. Their problem is the Astros believe every year is their year and decided to replace Phil Garner with Cecil Cooper. Cooper inevitably failed as the Astros got older and much worse.

Meanwhile the Indians, 242-244 over the last 3 years, were outs away from the World Series in 2007. Since then, boom goes the dynamite, the Indians imploded and traded their worthwhile pieces of Victor Martinez, C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee for plenty of prospects. The only player over 30 in this lineup is Travis Hafner. This lineup has enough young players that are trying to find a place to play, Matt LaPorta could be a regular in 2010 and Trevor Crowe is looking to fight for playing time. Grady Sizemore, moving into his age-27 season will look to rebound from an injury plagued 2009. Even with all that, the Indians were 10th in the majors in batting average in 2009 and can improve even more.

Meanwhile, the pitching has been a mess. Only the Baltimore Orioles 5.15 team ERA was worse than the Indians (5.06) over the course of the 2009 season. Jeremy Sowers (career 18-30, 5.18 ERA) has proven to be a first round bust from 2004. Fausto Carmona (13-19, 5.89 ERA since 19 win 2007) has not been able to get back to his 2007 form, making appear more as an anomaly than his true talent level. Over the last 2 years Carmona has struck out 137, the same amount he struck out in 2007 alone, his walks per 9 went from 2007's 2.6 all the way to 5.1. Aaron Laffey has proven to be a fringe starter, racking up a 16-18 record and career 4.39 ERA. Still, the only place they can go, is up.

Once Houston decided that they were firm to stick with a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option, Acta's choice became even easier. Maybe the Astros are still drinking the Kool Aid that they think they're contenders next year. Cleveland appears to understand that there will be a rebuilding process, similarly how there was after the 2002 firing of Charlie Manuel. Rebuilding is a good thing. Teams in these markets can't consistently contend, even if their owners think they should win at least 80 games a year.

Houston following up missing out on Acta, claims 27 year old outfielder Jason Bourgeois. Bourgeois, 28 next year, hit .189 in 40 plate appearances for the Brewers last year... I don't think there is any reason to be enthusiastic about the Astros. Other than Carlos Lee, this is a team that can't hit, can't score, can't pitch. Acta made the correct choice in the Indians.

Cheap in 2010

2009-10-25T21:52:00.003-04:00

We all know that Jimmy Rollins had a rough year in '09 and most of us know that a big part of his difficulties were of the BABIP variety, the .253/2nd lowest in the majors BABIP variety to be exact. But while we all know that that number is bad it's worth while to take a look at how bad it is and what it means. What would Rollins' numbers have been had he carried a .300 BABIP the whole season and still produced at the same rates for his fantasy relevant stats?

25/118/91/37/.296

Those are pretty great numbers.

Rollins is not in decline.

He may be stubborn and thickheaded, he reportedly makes a point to try to "hit his way" out of "slumps," and certainly has no place hitting leadoff, see also "managers who trot out crummy closers in high leverage situations all year," but he won't be going in the first round next year and he's definitely going to be cheap in 2010.

Wait, so Stephen Strasburg is Human?!?!

2009-10-22T20:22:00.005-04:00

$15.1 Million Dollars got us this?!?!

The Peoria Javelinas! That's right! The desert-area mammals turned this 2nd Strasburg AFL start into a homer fest.

Strasburg gave up 3 home runs:
B1 Russ Mitchell 2 run HR
(next batter) C.J. Retheford solo HR
B3 Casper Wells Grand Slam

For more we have the Washington Post:

The first homer he allowed, to Russ Mitchell, came on a 96 mph belt-high inside fastball. The next two, including a third-inning grand slam from the Javelinas' Casper Wells, came on hanging curveballs.

Strasburg overall faced 16 batters, throwing 60 pitches and 36 strikes.

Strasburg's line today: 2 2/3 IP, 7 H, 8 R/7 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 3 HR.

The Post also notes that his 4 HR given up already equal his total for San Diego State in his Junior season.

Jason Grey of ESPN said of Strasburg's first start:

While I had seen Strasburg before, another scout that was seeing him for the first time had this to say: "Sure, he can touch 99, but even if he works consistently at 95 in order to have better location and command, he's going to be very effective because of his other stuff."

He appeared to be working in the 95-96 level in today's game. We'll see what he can do next time.

I guess the lucky part is Strasburg's Spring Trainings will be in Florida for the Nats. Again, we will see what he can do in spring training but don't overpay for him in non-keeper leagues. You have to think with whoever they bring in as manager, or (more likely) they stick with Jim Riggleman, and with Mike Rizzo, who had a solid player development reputation after his 6 years with the Diamondbacks (2000-06), they will bring Strasburg up when they feel he can stay in the major leagues and contribute at a high level.

Plus he doesn't have his own highly touted "facts" page like Phillies prospect turned top pitcher Cole Hamels did:

Cole Hamels outpitched Steve Carlton before he was even born.
Pedro Martinez keeps a picture of Cole Hamels under his hat for inspiration.
Santa Claus asks for Cole in his stockings.

Or, if you want to, go ahead. That will only hurt you when I bid on other guys.

Brother Combos

2009-10-13T09:00:00.001-04:00

Coming into 2009 we had a bunch of siblings in major league baseball. Let's take a look at a few and their futures.

Uptons (BJ/Justin)
The older veteran player, BJ Upton, was expecting to have a big year after a postseason breakout. BJ's postseason 7 HR and .288/.333/.652 line made it appear that he was ready to have a career year.

BJ might have been expected to regress a little going into 2009. His .351 BABIP was the highest in his pro career since a short stint in 2004 (.339). The last time BJ hit 7 home runs in a month is August of 2007. BJ's walk rate fell from 15.4% to 9.2% in 2009, and that along with a drop in BABIP and slugging percentage led to a .241 year and Upton's lowest OPS since 2006. If we see a rebound in BJ's walk rate, we might see better average numbers. BJ was two strikeouts short (152) of his career high (154). If BJ can turn some of those strikeouts into walks and more of them into big hits, you will see that rebound in OPS, and he will be a legitimate top 5 round player.

While BJ struggled, Justin Upton had a breakout year. Justin posted career highs in practically every offensive category. Justin's walk rate also fell this year, from 13.2% to 9.5%. While that might be cause for alarm, Justin did lower his strikeout rate from 34% to 26%. When you stare at the 2008-2009 stats, you might not notice it, but Justin played 30 more games this year and struck out only 16 more times. Upton had a dominant May (.373/.444/1.154); the 7 HR and 21 RBI earned him National League Player of the Month and his first All-Star Game appearance. He bettered his OPS in limited action August with a .417/.462/.750 line after returning from an injury that plagued him before the all star break.

Justin did have double-digit steal seasons when he was a full time minor leaguer. Upton displayed his speed in the majors for the first time in 2009, stealing 20 bases. Justin is just realizing his potential as a big time fantasy player and will move into his age-22 season in a great ballpark for his power and speed. One interesting tidbit about Upton via Baseball Reference is that Justin fared better against starting pitchers as the game progresses:

1st PA .197/.254/.352
2nd PA .328/.398/.580
3rd PA .374/.446/.778

LaRoches (Andy/Adam)
Adam LaRoche is used to being an Atlanta Brave, he just didn't expect it to happen again this year. After spending three pro seasons with the Braves, Adam LaRoche landed there again at the trade deadline for Casey Kotchman. From there, Adam hit .325/.401/.557 with 12 HR and 40 RBI in 57 games. As a Pirate, Adam hit the same exact HR/RBI but posted a .247 average. In Adam's career, he has been steadily hitting more and more fly balls while his home run rate has fluctuated. Adam put up a career high .332 BABIP while his isolated power numbers went down by .020. Adam's .957 OPS with the Braves was his highest since 2006 when he had a .915 OPS with the Braves. Depending on where he ends up, Adam can be a useful corner option in fantasy leagues. He is entering his age-30 season and we have a good idea on who he is: around a .270 average, .340 OBP, over 120 strikeouts and 20 home run power. Not a bad option for 2010.

Andy LaRoche (.258/.330/.401 in 2009) is still attempting to make his mark in the pros. The former Dodger prospect was traded to the Pirates in 2008 but did not make good on his debuts with either team. Andy hit .152/.227/.232 as a Pirate but was given a shot to win the third base job in 2009. Andy showed a track record of being a 15-20 home run power, good average and on-base skills in his minor league years, but he has not been able to put it together. His walk rate in 2009 decreased from 9.7% to 8.7%. His first full season BABIP was .258, so some improvement could come in 2010. Andy has put up extreme ground ball rates as a pro, so we can't be too sure that the power is coming, even though there was an extremely slight (7.7% to 8%) increase in his Home Runs per Fly Ball percentage over the last two years. Andy helped himself out with a .313/.359/.552 September, with 5 HR and 18 RBI, though that was helped by a .342 BABIP.

Still trying to find a place for him, the Pirates approached him about moving to second base in 2010. When the Pirates bring up Pedro Alvarez, probably in 2010, they will not let LaRoche block him. If he can prove to play second base well (he played 3 games there in 2008), his bat might be more useful as a middle infield/second base option. However the chance that he will be a legit option might not be 2010, add to it that he might have to battle another former Dodger prospect, Delwyn Young (.266/.326/.381 2009)

Hairstons (Scott/Jerry Jr)
Both Hairstons found themselves not only traded from the National League to the American League, but also as fantasy surprises in 2009. Scott Hairston managed to do it while a member of the San Diego Padres. Scott hit .299/.358/.533 as the next best power option behind Adrian Gonzalez. Scott was traded for two minor league arms and went on to hit .236/.262/.391 as a member of the A's. Overall a .265/.307/.456 season looks good with the same amount of HR as 2008 but it could have been much better. Scott has never had a BABIP over .300 in his career (this year his BABIP was .294), and he hits about half his balls in the air. His home run rate decreased this year even though he hit the same amount of homers, and his walk rate was slashed from a mere 7.9% in 2008 to 5.5%. Scott set a career high in doubles with 27. If a few more of those can go over the fence, he could be an outfield option in standard and deep leagues. However we are pretty sure this is what he is: a .260s hitter with some power.

The elder statesman, Jerry Hairston Jr., entered 2009 as a utility player and became an option for the Reds at shortstop until he was traded on July 31st to the Yankees. Jerry put up his career high in home runs (10) and was one away from tying his career high in runs. However, Jerry lost some of his career best .361 BABIP from 2008 to .270 BABIP and hit .251. When Jerry moved from the Reds (.254/.305/.397) to the Yankees (.237/.352/.382) he turned from fantasy surprise to bench player. It might be difficult to see Jerry repeat this performance at age 34, regardless of where he plays.

Drews (JD/Stephen)
JD Drew has been a steady performer as a member of the Red Sox (.279/.392/.522 in 2009). JD has recorded 30 doubles or more in 3 of his last 4 seasons; 2008 was the only year he did not do it when he had 23 in 109 games. Drew has posted an OPS over .900 the last two seasons. The speed JD showed off in his early 20s has disappeared, but his ability to draw walks has consistently gotten better; his BABIP has been steadily in the .300s. JD's Isolated power has increased each of his three Red Sox seasons, however he has also started to hit a lot more fly balls. He also put up a significant home/road split:

Fenway: .298/.419/.572
Road: .262/.367/.477

So expect a few more of those fly balls to continually turn into outs. JD is about to hit that point of his career when the decline begins, but it might not be quick . JD can put together maybe two more top flight seasons and will probably end up with somewhere near 1,500 hits for his career. He will be a useful outfield option in fantasy for home runs and average for 2010.

One player who might not be as useful for 2010 is Stephen Drew. Stephen (.261/.320/.428) may have shown who he really is in 2009. Even though he recorded a second straight double-digit triples season, he would have struck out over 100 times if not for missing over 25 games. His BABIP went from .326 to .293; that combined with an already low walk rate and a 16.3% strikeout rate hurt his chances at another 20 HR season.

Now, looking at these numbers, you might not think a player with 20 HR potential and no speed is a leadoff hitter. However, Stephen hit his best at the leadoff spot at a .301/.352/.541 clip with 7 HR and 25 RBI. He is a career .283/.338/.476 in the leadoff spot with 19 HR, 41 doubles and 12 triples. For a player who has not stolen more than 5 bases in a pro season, he is an unusual source of triples. However double digit triples in two of his three full pro seasons might suggest otherwise. Drew was unable to turn his crazy doubles number in 2008 (44) into more home runs.

It has gone to the point where trade speculation has began to hover over Stephen. Arizona Republic reporter Nick Piecoro said on his blog:

here’s what team officials are saying: This idea hasn’t been discussed and seems very unlikely to happen. They wouldn’t rule it out -- they talk about all kinds of ideas involving just about everyone -- but consider Drew among the most difficult to envision being traded.

Piecoro makes a good point in the post: Drew did rank 10th in OPS among shortstops. That might say more about the depth of shortstop than anything else. I think Stephen Drew will rebound, but how much he rebounds is tough to see. I could live with a bump in the BABIP, which could lead to about a .270 avg, somewhere around 18-23 HR and 65-70 RBI as a step forward into his further prime years. He will hit the illustrious age-27 season in 2010 and should be a useful middle option in standard leagues and a shortstop option in deep leagues.

Aybars (Willy/Erick)
Willy Aybar has made the turn from Dodger prospect retread to legit bench option for the Tampa Bay Rays. Willy has hit .253 in 2008 and 2009 in over 300 PAs each year. He has shown doubles and home run power, knocking double digit home runs each of the last two seasons. He is in the unfortunate spot of being blocked at the corners by Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena when they are not injured.

Willy might have turned in the same numbers, but his second half (.234/.293/.372) was much worse than his first half (.272/.365/.457). While his BABIP increased in 2009 frm .267 to .274, his strikeout rate increased just under 5 percent to 18.2%. which made his OBP only go up by 4 points. Willy will only be a deep league option next year as he enters his age-27 season.

While Willy had a poor second half, his brother Erick Aybar used the second half to get on fire. Erick went .328/.370/.437 in the second half with 6 triples and an .807 OPS. That included a July of .414/.446/.563 with 2 triples, 6 doubles and 18 RBI.

Erick has never hit for power, and it would be unfair to think that his career high in doubles (23) would translate into more home runs (5 this year). Erick's value comes from his steals: he stole 14 bases in 2009, which was double his 2008 total.

For all his attributes, Erick does have a 5.6% walk rate, though that increased by more than 1% from 2008. One other issue is he might have a hard time replicating a .342 BABIP, which increased 30 points from 2008. He started to hit a few more fly balls this year but also hit more line drives than ever in his career. Expect to see more of the same as Erick enters his age-27 season. He should be good for around 10 triples, so in a league where triples count Erick can be a crucial player. Erick has a 64% success rate in stolen bases and expect more of the same from that rate too. If he increased his stolen base output, there is a chance he could be as valuable as the speedy outfielders like Nyjer Morgan and Denard Span.

Duncans (Chris/Shelley)
After both making impressions but never lasting as pro players, they might need their father, current but maybe outgoing St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan, to lobby the next organization he joins to take them on.

When not claiming Fantasy Baseball expertise, Ryan writes about Mid-Major College Basketball at SienaSaintsBlog.com.

RotoSavants' Top 100(+2) for 2010: Part 2

2009-10-12T09:00:00.021-04:00

Obviously there is some concern surrounding Sizemore coming off his injuries in '09 but there are good reasons to think that the old Grady will be back in '10. Even during his disappointing '09 seasons he didn't seem to change his approach at the plate, slightly improving both his K% and BB%. His OBP was down but not as much as his BABIP, and his SLG% and ISO were down but not too much from his career numbers. In the end '09 was a somewhat short, somewhat poor, somewhat unlucky season for Sizemore but not the outright disaster that some Sizemore owners might remember - had Sizemore played out the full season his numbers would have been worth about a seventh round pick. Considering that he put up seventh round numbers playing with a bum elbow and a sports hernia I'd be happy to get him in the second round in '10.

Lee: This is how I felt as a Sizemore owner this year. While frustrating that my pick of him went to waste, when I consider the injuries he did incur, he still produced fairly well in limited action. Something I did find interesting: The odd spike in strikeouts early in the year quickly got fixed when he returned, and his season ratios, like you mentioned, fell back in line as expected. That makes me feel comfortable drafting him next year.

14. Ian Kinsler (Corey Dawkins)

I can't believe that he fell this far but I would take Ian Kinsler in a heartbeat here. Elite middle infielders are hard to find and getting a 30/30 guy this late in the draft who happens to be a 2B is unbelievable. Kinsler has been getting better each year and in 2009, setting career highs in HR, SB, RBIs, TBs, and isolated power. The one number that stands out to me though is his BABIP which is at a ridiculously low .244. Previously his lowest BABIP was .285 and that was the only other time his BABIP was below .300. I fully expect his average to return to normal and his production should be more than enough to get into the first round, rivaling that of Hanley. Putting that average back in line with close to the same production from 2009 puts his line at 280/350/500 and 30HR, 85RBI, 100 R, and 30 SB for 2010. Not bad at all.

Lee: Any concern about his LD%? A drop from 24% to 14% definitely affected his BABIP, and his OBP as well. Those 97 runs should have been a lot better? At least he kept his walk rate in the high 9% where it's been slowly improving after last year's dip.

Troy: He could have gone earlier, but 2009 was his first season breaking 130 games and two seasons he was stuck at 120. He was quickly developing an injury risk tag. I wouldn't say that is all removed yet, but when he is on the field he is a candidate for the number 1 fantasy second baseman.

15. Miguel Cabrera (Lee Perrault)
Another "safe" nomination, and Cabrera makes our 5th first basemen of the Top 15. After a slight misstep in production last year, Cabrera jumped back up to being 950+ OPS player, and since 2005, he's posted OPS numbers of .947, .998, .965, .887, and .952. With a growing HR/FB rate, a solid walk rate and a declining strikeout rate, it's possible that Cabrera still hasn't even had his "breakout" season yet.

Did I mention he's still only 26? After Pujols, I'm thinking Cabrera may actually be the best value of all the firstbasemen if he's the 5th guy off the board. If he's hanging around the 2nd round, you'll reap the benefits like the guy who stole Fielder from me in Round 2 this past season :(

Aaron: The top 20 is looking very deep for 2010. I'm thinking I want to have something like the 9th, 10th, 11th, or 12th draft pick next year so that I can get Kemp and Sizemore, A-Rod and Kinsler, or Mauer and Miggy. Outside of Pujols and maybe Hanley I'm not seeing a lot of separation between the top twenty.

Lee: Aaron, absolutely. Unless I'm picking 1st, I'm definitely trading down.

Kevin: One thing I like about Miggy is his constantly high average. He's like Pujols, who can give you a very high average to offset any low-BA pickup in later rounds. I actually like Miggy as much as Teixeira for this reason. Teix will get more RBI, and he hit a few more HR (thanks to New Yankee Stadium), but Miggy's BA was 30 points higher.

16. Zack Greinke (Kevin Jebens)
There's everything to like here, and I don't see any reason not to assume Greinke won't be one of the very top pitchers next year. Some look at his ERA and assume it has to balloon back up, but it certainly wasn't luck because his BABIP was .307. He's a strikeout machine and doesn't walk many batters. The guy was touted before he took some time off. On a better team he'd be a top-10 pick, and you could probably justify it anyway.

Aaron: He's one of the most cerebral players in baseball and on a better team he would challenge Lincecum as the most valuable hurler in the MLB. Did you know that he used to go scout college players on his off-days? And take batting practice after his regular workouts, just for fun?

17. Justin Upton (Ryan A. Restivo)
I would say that many people will come out and have a thorough man-crush or "bromance", if you will, for Upton. Let it begin now.

Kevin: I'd like to see him do it again before guaranteeing him a top-20 spot, but you certainly can't deny the talent the guy has.

18. Matt Holliday (Troy Patterson)

Here is the first player that could be changing value based on a team change, but unless he heads back to Oakland or an NL West team he should return to first round value next year. His move out of the pitching park of Oakland led his OPS to go from .831 to 1.015. A lot of his struggles this year also came against lefties where his OPS was only .808. This is below his career splits and although he is better against right handers the numbers should all regress to the mean.

19. Evan Longoria (Aaron Murray)
What a solid pick-up in the middle of the second round if he drops this far. Longoria is showing signs of growth as he's walking more and striking out less this year than last, although his power numbers are slightly down. Mostly though he's just a really safe bet to put up great numbers in every category except steals. And by the way, Evan, if you're reading this, try running more. After all, you've never been caught in the Major Leagues. That's right, never. Not once. I've got a goal for you for 2010: fifteen stolen bases. Sound good? You can do it, big guy. You can do it.

Ryan:
What do these numbers have in common?

Exhibit A: .233/ .341/.411
Exhibit B: .189/.290/.411
Exhibit C: .259/.336/.435

They are Longoria's June, July and August numbers. Just warning you before you pay too much for him next year, it's a slight red flag.

Aaron:
Yeah, it is pretty weird that he went through that spell, but I'm willing to overlook it because of his very good September, .314/.395/.590. If he was playing with a nagging injury or something then it seemed to have healed up by the end of the year. Even if you just take his June-August stats a full season projected at those numbers is about 80/24/72/8/.229, certainly not what you expect from Longo but not utterly terrible, either, and that's at his absolute worst.

20. Adrian Gonzalez (Lee Perrault)

Much like my pick of Miguel Cabrera, Adrian is another player I think is poised for a breakout at first base. Some fun Adrian Gonzales facts:

Since his first full MLB season with the Padres in 2006, Adrian Gonzales has doubled his walk rate. And this isn't a small increase either.

Year - BB%/K%
2006 - 8.4% / 19.8%
2007 - 9.1% / 21.7%
2008 - 10.7% / 23.1%
2009 - 17.7% / 19.6%

Your first outburst could be, "But Lee, his lineup sucks, didn't they just pitch around him?" Not so fast, my friend: Adrian only has 3 more IBBs this year in comparison to 2008.

There will always be question marks about the ballpark, the tepid lineup, and everything else that stinks about San Diego. But for a player with such a ridiculous growth pattern in his plate discipline, a continuous increase in HR/FB%, and a sustained LD% while having a plummeting BABIP, this just screams breakout.

Kevin: What's more, you have to assume he'll eventually leave San Diego. They seem to think they can compete in 2010, but if they fall flat in the first half, I wouldn't be surprised if A-Gon is traded (though I'm betting more on a 2011 departure).

21. Troy Tulowitzki (Kevin Jebens)
The best SS not named Hanley. Some might think this spot is a bit high to rank him, but he'll be 25 in 2010, and he's actually turned into a power/speed combo that rivals Hanley and Utley this year. Don't believe me? Take a look at Utley's and Tulo's lines:

.282/112/31/93/23
.297/101/32/92/20

The difference is imperceptible except in a few more R due to the better Phillies lineup. The top tier for middle infield is crowded, and I'd actually be more than happy to miss out on Hanley and Utley, pick up a 40-HR 1B, and then swoop in and grab Tulo. If he learns the nuances of stealing and reduces his CS (only a 64.5% success rate this year), I wouldn't be surprised to see a 35 HR, 25 SB season from him.

Lee: Tulo's season astounds me, and he's going to be someone that I think is going to have a varied ADP after stinking up the joint in 2008.

Aaron: Tulo could be a real value pick for '10 depending on his ADP. Let somebody else pay for Hanley and Reyes, and overpay for Rollins and Jeter, then swoop in for Tulowitzki. His HRs were all over the field this year which usually means that the power is for real.

22. Carl Crawford (Troy Patterson)
If you have been here before you know I don't like to overvalue speed, but Crawford's consistent top flight speed is a top 24 talent and shouldn't be overlooked. He used to have the allure of reaching 20+ homers, but we all know now to expect 15-18 homers. I think the .364 OBP is a career high and might be questionable for next year, but the walk rate at 7.8% is a career high as well. A draft choice in Crawford is based mostly in expected value as he has had consistent numbers every year except 2008.

23. "King" Felix Hernandez (Ryan A. Restivo)
Yes this might be too much to early but I think as much as you've seen Grienke take that next step, I believe King Felix will finally become that consistent dominant ace. 2009 saw his career bests in Wins, ERA, Starts, Strikeouts, WHIP, Hits/9 and his best full season strikeout to walk rate.

Ever since Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu called out Felix after a poor outing May 19th, King Felix went 15-2 with a 1.98 ERA. Not bad.

Did I mention 2010 will be his age-24 season?

Aaron: I don't know if I'd want to count on a guy stepping up to the next level when there are guys like Haren, Verlander, Halladay, and even Vazquez who have better track records still on the board. Hernandez was also helped out this year by a HR/FB% of only 7.5% so expect some regression in his FIP. Would I be surprised if King Felix ends up as a top three pitcher next year? Not at all. But to me, there are a couple of guys, even after Lincecum and Grienke, who are safer bets to be at that Best-Of-The-Best level, like Eric Roberts.

24. Ryan Zimmerman (Kevin Jebens)

He's only 25. He had career highs in BA, OBP, and SLG. But most amazing, he got 100+ R, 30+ HR, and 100+ RBI for a team that lost 100 games. Zimm was supposed to break out last year but dealt with injuries. I think it's safe to say that he's back on track to be a top player for years to come. Dunn will provide some protection for another year, which can only help Zimm's value.

Aaron:I'm not saying it isn't justified but it seems pretty amazing that David Wright, a consensus top five pick last year with no injury issues, has slipped behind so many other 3B. That said, unless I'm desperate for steals I'd take Zimmerman over Wright in '10, too. He's primed for a breakout while Wright put up career worst numbers last season even though he had the highest BABIP in the majors by far.

Kazmir's "historic dominance over the Sox"

2009-10-10T21:42:00.005-04:00

In the middle of the season I saw the following "statistic" about Pedro Martinez -

Advice: Martinez (1-0, 5.40 ERA) will likely make his next start Tuesday night at home against Arizona. The right-hander hasn't faced the Diamondbacks since June 11, 2006, but was 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA in his previous four starts against them.
(STATS, Inc.)

I particularly like the fact that they filed this under "Advice," as though I was supposed to change my Pedro Martinez usage based on two teams, the '06 and '09 D-Backs, that had exactly four hitters in common who had a total of 283 total PAs in 2006 and 2009 (up to that point) combined.

But I was really surprised to find a post at Fangraphs, a normally excellent source for sabermetric information and debate, that discussed "Scott Kazmir's historic dominance over the Sox."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/alds-coverage-maybe-boston-left-their-bats-at-fenway

Which Sox, I thought. Dustin Pedroia? Mark Loretta? Jim Rice? Babe Ruth? I could point out that the current Red Sox lineup is different than the one that Kazmir faced for the majority of his time in Tampa, or I could point out that the likely Boston lineup on Sunday has a combined slash line of .295/.370/.485 against him, or I could point out that none of this has anything to do with Sunday's contest since we're not talking about enough PAs to be statistically relevant.

Or I could point out that Fangraphs is a wonderful website that usually has it's ducks in row, just not this time.

Tonight we went from Joe Mauer SHOULD win the MVP...

2009-10-06T23:29:00.001-04:00

...to Joe Mauer WILL win the MVP.

Thoughts on Javier Vazquez and his Clone

2009-10-05T08:53:00.002-04:00

This week my Clone Wars article takes a look at two pitchers who are close in Wins at 14 and 15 each and ERA is 2.87 and 2.89. Those pitchers are Javier Vazquez and Matt Cain. I found these two really interesting since one has always been worse than his numbers say he should be and the other has always been better.

Also over at Yawkey Way Academy, Lee and I have been going over the positional matchups in the Angels vs Red Sox ALDS.

ALDS Matchup
Catcher Matchup
Infield Matchup
Reliever Matchup

Outfielders will be reviewed tomorrow and Starting Pitching on Wednesday. A final review with predictions will be out later on Wednesday if they play Wed and Thursday if the series starts then. I will also be posting "Why the Red Sox will beat the Angels" at THT in the next day or so.

RotoSavants' Top 100(+2) for 2010: Part 1

2009-10-01T08:00:00.001-04:00

During the conclusion of 2009 and into this year's playoffs, we'll be compiling our current Top 100 rankings for next year.

All 6 authors will be taking turns nominating whom they think are the best fantasy players in baseball, along with our first two big sleepers of 2010 upon conclusion. We'll also neatly wrap up and revise our initial Top 100 in the offseason, so you'll always have a quick list to use right before draft time.

In Part 1 this week, we'll be looking at the first 12 players on our list.

1. Albert Pujols (Aaron Murray)

Albert Pujols is simply awesome at baseball. This year Baseballmonster.com rates his fantasy value at 2.05, a full .46 points higher than the next rated player, Zack Grienke (who is also awesome.) For context that .46 points is about as much value as a player like Dustin Pedroia, Mariano Rivera, or Adrian Gonzalez has provided, which means that Pujols this year has been worth a #2 overall pick and a solid third round pick, all from a guy whose BABIP is well below his career mark. Sure, his elbow could explode at any time and he plays at fantasy’s strongest position, but that’s no reason to pass on a deity when all your other options are mere mortals.

Ryan: Over/Under; How many years Pujols will be 1st overall in drafts? I'd put it at 3.5 and I'd take the over, starting with this year.

Lee: At this point, I'd take the over also. Even if he ends up one year not being the "best," he's easily the safest pick in the draft, and should be for the next half-decade.

2. Prince Fielder (Corey Dawkins)
I had trouble with this one because this year we saw a couple players really start to do the things we were expecting on the diamond. Some like to go with the power and speed combo and I did pause to give it some thought but 40-50 home run power doesn't grow on trees. Since Aaron referenced Baseballmonster.com above, I'd note that he's currently at 1.33, the second highest hitter on the board. Prince is really the only one without any true question marks left as he hits for decent average, gets on base, has power and drives them in. He's in the middle of an improving lineup and he's also only 25 years old.

Sure he doesn't give you stolen bases, but it's a lot easier to find 20-steal guys in the middle of a season (see Carlos Gonzalez, E. Young Jr) for relatively cheap than a 20 HR guy (remember how hard it was to pick up Ryan Braun a few years ago). Thankfully, his BABIP is right around the upper limit of "normal" at .320 and his HR/FB% is approximating what it was 2 years ago when he hit 50. While I think that Hanley and Co. are elite players, that sliver of a doubt of turning in a sub-par season because of the lineup around them makes me take Prince here.

Troy: I think this is a bit early. Pujols rises to the top because he leads each category by a mile ahead of every other first baseman. Fielder is only a step beyond them. His numbers may look great compared to the league, but in a grouping of firstbasemen he falls back to the pack. His average is likely to regress as well next year, as he is more of a .280 hitter.

Aaron: I agree that he's less volatile than some of the other options at the top of the first round, but his lack of position dominance makes it hard for me to see him as a #2 overall guy.

Kevin: What worries me was his HR drop in 2008. Made me wonder whether 50 HR was a bit of a stretch. This year he's done very well again, so maybe 2008 was the fluke, but because he hasn't been quite as consistent as some other top hitters, I drop him a few spots.

3. Hanley Ramirez (Kevin Jebens)
You could make a case for either Hanley or Chase Utley here. Both are tops at their position by leaps and bounds. There were two deciding factors for me. 1) For once, 2B seems to have more depth than SS. Sure, you can get good mid-round picks at either position, but at SS, two of the three guys who have been elite for years (Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins) had down years, making them riskier (though cheaper) picks in 2010. On the other hand, players have begun to emerge at second, with Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist adding to the number of very respectable options. 2) Hanley's NL-leading BA makes him look all the more appealing. Besides, Hanley is five years younger, and I still think he has an outside chance at 40/40.

Lee: When you get production that rivals that of classic offensive positions (1B/OF) how can you pass up the shortstop? I wouldn't be surprised if Hanley does eventually break 40/40.

Aaron: Hanley is definitely a top three pick but don't expect the same monster BA next year as his current BABIP of .393 is due for some regression.

4. Chase Utley (Lee Perrault)
There is going to be a dramatic change at the top of the draft compared to 2009. Reyes, Grady, and Wright should all fall out of the Top 10, and many new faces will appear. Chase isn't one of them.

Like Kevin said, while both Hanley and Chase are leaps and bounds ahead of their respective positions, there is some new depth at 2B, almost to the point where fantasy second basemen of the late 2000s are looking like fantasy shortstops of the late 90s/early 2000s.

Utley has finished with a wOBA the past 3 years of:
2009 - .416 (tied for 3rd with Prince)
2008 - .391 (13th, but behind Kinsler)
2007 - .420 (7th)

With a career 9.9% walk rate(R potential), a 15.5% HR/FB rate, and a shot at a modest 10-15 steals, Utley's pretty much the best you'll get at 2nd base, and with #1 outfielder-like production at second, he's an easy choice for fourth on this list.

Troy: You also need to mention his walk rate ballooned to 13.9% this year and while it should regress in 2010 he looks to be over 11% going forward. Utley is a very consistent player and outside of injuries will be sure to return on the investment of a first round pick.

5. Ryan Braun (Ryan A. Restivo)

Easiest call I'll ever have to make. If you can get Ryan Braun in the first 6 picks, please do it! That's right, no A-Rod here.

There are two positions that I think are very deep next year, third base and first base, and I can live with a lot of players there and at corner spots. If I can get Braun here and grab a corner later I'd take it.

It's not time to diss on David Wright and Alex Rodriguez. At this point I'd probably say A-Rod and Braun are equal talent-wise, and when they're equal I would rather have the upside. Braun is entering his age-26 season and could still improve! I'm not sure if Wright gets his power back. Looking at his 2008 data, he hit 5 opposite field home runs at Shea, and at Citi Field he has managed to hit one the opposite way. Add that to the relative impossibility to hit home runs to left center field, except for Mark Reynolds, I would expect Wright to produce more steals than home runs as long as he plays 82 games at Citi Field.

Kevin: A guy that can give me 40/15 is always welcome. I do like his upside as well, and the Brewers have a great offense to support his numbers. There's no reason to gamble on any uncertainty in the first round, and guys that used to be great now have question marks.

6. Mark Reynolds (Troy Patterson)
I had to think hard in this spot since the MI elite had gone. With OF and 1B are available later and even while third base has shown a lot of promise this year there is no one who did what Mark Reynolds did in 2009 at third base, nevermind any other position. When I wrote on him last there was some questions on his power with some extra "just enough" homers according to HitTracker. He still has this with 33% of his homers in the "just enough" range, but that still would put him near 40 homers if adjusted this year.

Most would claim he has only done this once and shouldn't be trusted this early, but Reynolds was top 5 in every category except batting average in 2008 among third basemen. I always expected regression to the mean, but his past two year are competent enough to make me think he is worth the risk.

Aaron: It's hard not to like a guy with 50/30 upside. The good news is that he probably won't go this early in most leagues because people get scared by the K's.

Kevin: I know he's good, and I like him a lot. But why take any risk in the first round? What if he regresses next year? There are still guys out there that you should be able to bank on their numbers barring injury (Howard, M-Cab). Reynolds might be worth more... but he could end up being less. The nice thing is he'll have 1B eligibility too.

Lee: I'm unsure what kind of risk Reynolds brings outside of cause for concern around batting average. Even if he regresses, a sure 30-35/20 at 3B still makes you one of, if not the best, third basemen available. I'm a little biased as a Reynolds owner, and I think he'll still slip in some drafts past guys like A-Rod. I'll happily take that advantage.

7. Tim Lincecum (Aaron Murray)
I think it's important to be excited about your first round pick, and boy is this guy exciting. His numbers are all trending in the right direction, and I see no reason, barring injury, to think that he won't be one of the top three pitchers in baseball next year; I'd be shocked if he wasn't one of the top five. He just beats out Grienke as fantasy's number one starter because of his higher K/9 and the defense behind him. Pick him early, hope that he can improve his B/9 again in '10, and then don't take another starter until the middle rounds.

Kevin: The old debate about how high to take a starter. I would probably gamble on Lincecum. Of course, if you take him in the first half of a snake draft, you gotta wait a long time to get your first slugger, and some elite guys will be off the table. I'll only take a starter this early if I'm near the end of a snake draft.

Ryan: I will give the slight disagreement here. In a head to head league next year I would be fine with grabbing a top end starter like Lincecum in the first round. How many elite starters are there out there? Maybe 5 or 6.

Aaron: Yeah, taking a pitcher this early doesn't quite feel right to me either but the case can be made that Lincecum is the Pujols of pitching. Halladay doesn't have the K/9 while King Felix, Verlander, Vazquez, and Carpenter all have checkered pasts. Haren is great but is getting lucky this year based on his BABIP and Grienke is really close but Lincecum edges him out. Lincecum is the only one on this list that I would wager even money as a top three starter next year and that kind of certainty is worth a mid-to-late first round pick.

Lee: I don't really look at a Top 100 as a mimic of the first round, so I agree with putting Lincecum this high. Does my draft strategy say Lincecum is worth a Top 10 pick? Probably not because of how rosters are constructed, but he is immensely talented, and is easily the first pitcher that should be selected.

8. Ryan Howard (Corey Dawkins)
I hate taking first basemen this early but there are very few people who have true 50 home run talent. 4 straight seasons in the mid 40's HR and 130 RBI+ is damn near impossible to find and if you can grab him this late, do it in a heartbeat. There are some thoughts that you should go after a balanced HR/SB threat but in order to win, you must dominate some categories. He hits in an incredibly hitter friendly park and he still has all the tools around him. His batting average is even respectable right around league average .270. Overall, I can't find any issues with taking him here.

Aaron: Are you implying that Ryan Howard is not a balanced HR/SB threat? He's got seven whole steals this year! Seriously, though, his Bill James Speed Score has risen consistently since 2007 so in addition to being an elite option at HR and RBI Howard has an outside chance at double digit Steals in '10.

Lee: While I'll always prefer a five category player, Howard is still the next elite pick at first base, even with Yankee Stadium now a lefty launching pad.

Kevin: Howard never really impressed me until I owned him on a team. That high RBI trend will continue on the offensive Phillies, and there's no reason not to bank on 40+ HR. Just because he's not a BA king doesn't mean you should pass up on him for the chance at, say, a .300 hitter with 25 HR.

Troy: Howard was nearly my choice for the 6 ranking, but only passed for position eligibility with Reynolds. The lineup and stadium are clearly benefiting Howard, but that is more reason to like him. I still expect he could have another season with an average higher than this, but he's never going to be a .300 hitter.

9. Matt Kemp (Kevin Jebens)

There were many people I thought of for this spot, and I'm sure most of them will pop up in the following picks. However, it's hard to ignore Kemp's power and speed combination. He's stolen 30+ two years running, and he's not caught all that often (81% success rate) compared to other SB guys (he beats out Bourn and Figgins and Rollins, to name a few). He's still developing his power stroke, as evidenced by the rising HR trend over the last three years. While his average isn't tops, .300 isn't anything to sneeze at either. Finally, he plays one of the best teams in the National League. Though I'm not pegging him for a 40/40 season, I'm perfectly happy with 25-30 HR and 30+ SB. Last year I would've chosen Grady Sizemore here. For 2010, Kemp's the power/speed guy to go for after Hanley--and he's a better average hitter than Sizemore anyway.

Lee: Are we thoroughly convinced Kemp is surpassing Grady as the #2 overall outfielder? While I know Grady had injury problems this year, his return after rest didn't hamper him all that much, and his elbow surgery and abdomnial surgery are both minor enough that he's returning to baseball activities in November. I still have some reservations of Kemp as a Top 10 player.

Kevin: Lee, there's a good chance that Sizemore is perfectly fine next year and puts up a monster season. But I subscribe to the risk management in the first few rounds. I wouldn't be overly shocked that Grady is more valuable than Kemp next year. But in the first round, and in my own rankings, I try to avoid players with injuries in the year before. You can get burned by injury no matter who you draft, but why raise your risk in the first round or two, even if the player is really good?

10. Alex Rodriguez (Ryan A. Restivo)
Yes he's the oldest player taken so far but I'll still bank on A-Rod to have a great year. The only issue I have with taking Kemp over A-Rod is that you're paying a lot for Kemp to make that next big leap into superstar. I'm not going to lie, I broke the bank in an auction or two on Matt Kemp only to see him move around everywhere in the lineup. I say Matt Kemp can be a superstar as long as they hit him in the first five but every time this past year he hit AFTER Russell Martin, let's just say I was unhappy for those times.

Kevin: With a bit of injury history now, and his fall from grace from steroid use, I still wonder what sort of stat line the A-Rod of the future will post. I'm sure he's still valuable, but there's a bit of risk in him now. Kemp isn't likely to fall below his 2009 numbers, but he should go up. For A-Rod, I'm only comfortable using 30 HR/10 SB as his base point. This is good, but not stellar, and if injuries continue, I don't see much upside.

Lee: Kevin, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the start of A-Rod's gradual decline into merely above average. Granted, he's still the best or second best options at third base in the AL, but he seems like one of those players that in the first round, I'd let someone else pick him and chase upside.

11. Mark Teixeira (Lee Perrault)
Tex guarantees a strong power hitter in a ridiculous lineup playing in a left hander's paradise. Tex has been in the Top 6 of Batting runs the past two years, fueling his huge RAR values. You know what you're getting with Tex, and it's still an excellent anchor to your offense. For me, your first two picks should be safe, solid bets for the season, so Tex lands at #11 for this reason specifically.

I'll admit, while I can pass up Reyes because his value (SB) is hampered by leg injuries, it was hard not selecting Sizemore. When I draft next year, I won't be able to watch Grady pass me in the 2nd round, especially when his production wasn't severely hampered in his return this August before his two surgeries.

Kevin: I almost picked Teixeira instead of Kemp. What's not to like about a .290-.300 BA, 30+ HR (40 HR power in the new ballpark), and 100+ R and RBI due to the Yankee lineup? The only reason I DIDN'T pick him was due to the abundance of top 1B. Still, those stats are impressive for any position, and he's a good anchor for a team.

12. Joe Mauer (Troy Patterson)

There is little doubt that Mauer has been the best player in baseball this year with the bat, but it is good to remember he has 20 less games played than the top of this list. That probably won't change to much since he does get days off as a catcher, but he also gets in the lineup by DH as well. His stats before this year made him one of the best catchers, but this year his power has exploded and make him someone who would rank among the top first basemen.

Putting Mauer in perspective using Baseballmonster.com values he is 3 times as valuable as the next catcher (Victor Martinez). Albert Pujols is not even double the next first basemen. His stat line would put him near this group, but his position eligibility solidifies him here. Both his "just enough" homers and his previous SLG numbers call for a power regression, but at 26 he should be adding power. He should have the power to total 25 again next year at least.

Aaron: To me the question with Mauer is definitely his sudden power stroke. If he can sustain his ability to hit 25-30 HR then he belongs here, if not then he probably doesn't. If you look at his 2008 HR chart over at Hittracker compared to this year he looks like a different hitter, spraying balls to all fields with power. I'd be surprised if he didn't break 20 HR in '10 and with the potential to hit 30 he could certainly justify this selection.

Lee: When you think about it, how many guys really are a lock for 30 HRs? If they are at 2B or SS, we flock to them. Shouldn't C be even more so? If you could guarantee to me right now that Mauer hits 25-30 homeruns, I'd pick him right after Utley goes off the board.

Adam Lind Sleeper of the Year

2009-09-29T11:58:00.002-04:00

I was asked to comment at The Herald Bulletin about the topic of Adam Lind as Sleeper of the Year. I think the top three sleepers on offense this year were Adam Lind, Aaron Hill and of course Mark Reynolds. This is Adam Lind's hometown paper as well.

Who do you think was the sleeper of the year?

Drafting in Hindsight - The Dark Side

2009-09-28T22:27:00.000-04:00

Last week I took a look at perhaps the best team that one could have drafted in '09 so today we'll look at the flip side, a team that could have reasonably been drafted in March of '09 and still end up being terrible.

R1 - Jose Reyes
R2 - Alfonso Soriano
R3 - Brandon Webb
R4 - Geovany Soto
R5 - Garrett Atkins
R6 - Chris Davis
R7 - Francisco Liriano
R8 - Brad Lidge
R9 - Ervin Santana
R10 - Chris Young (OF)
R11 - Mike Aviles
R12 - B.J. Ryan
R13 - Alex Gordon
R14 - Xavier Nady
R15 - Matt Capps
R16 - Chien-Ming Wang
R17 - Ricky Weeks
R18 - Cameron Maybin
R19 - Dioner Navarro
R20 - Fausto Carmona

I'm not saying that all of these would have been good picks but they would have been at least reasonable and look at the team you would have been stuck with. There are some injuries and regression here but mostly there's a lot of crummy, stinky, awful performances. I'd be willing to bet that any team that drafted more than about three or four off these guys, especially in the early rounds, would have a very difficult time competing.

I was able to survive drafting one guy on this list, Chris Davis, but what about you guys? Anybody have a "lost season" due to this bunch of misfits? Anybody fight through despite drafting something awful like Reyes, Soto, and Weeks?

2010 Elite Second Basemen and Casey Kelly

2009-09-28T08:29:00.004-04:00

I want everyone to know that Daisuke Matsuzaka did not look encouraging on Saturday. Once again this morning I heard this comment and it's just not true. He went back to the old Matsuzaka and walked 5 batters. Of course this article changed into more love for Clay Buchholz and a few new changes I have seen from him this year.

- Clone Wars is up this morning and I found a lot in common with Chase Utley and Ben Zobrist. Zobrist even went in the fifth round of an early mock, so obvious value to be had.

- Casey Kelly was given half a year as pitcher, but due to his interest to keep playing shortstop he was given the second half playing the field. What can we tell from his 2009 season about where he should play next year?

Cheap in 2010

2009-09-26T20:46:00.004-04:00

Since June 1st a certain player has the following line;

58/26/76/0/.266

Projected out to a full season that line would be about;

87/39/114/0/.266

That's about third round value in a standard twelve team league. Who is this player? David Ortiz. Is he going to go in the third round of drafts next year? Not a chance. Should he go in the third round? Again, not a chance. He leads the MLB in Lucky Homers according to Hittracker and we all know that he's just not the Big Papi of '05-'07 anymore.

Is he going to be cheap in 2010, though? I think it's reasonable to project Ortiz as an 85/30/100/0/.270 hitter next year - he'll always get a few extra lucky HR playing in Fenway and he'll probably be hitting fifth or sixth in a potent Red Sox lineup. That line is good for about 7th or 8th round value. I think people will still be too gun shy to take him that early so if you target him in the tenth round or so you could have a good buy low opportunity. Even if you don't love Ortiz it's nice to have a few power guys and a few speedsters on your radar so that you can adapt your mid-draft strategy based on how the early rounds went.

Zack Greinke's Epic Season

2009-09-23T13:06:00.002-04:00

I wrote some thoughts on Zack Greinke at Yawkey Way Academy. His season is one of the best in this century. There really should be no debating who is the Cy Young, but as I asked perhaps we should be debating the MVP. Joe Mauer or Zack Greinke?

No Longer Hangin' with Mr. Cooper

2009-09-21T20:10:00.001-04:00

Cecil Cooper went from having his option picked up in April, to hoping to keep his job in September, to not having a job today.

My absolute favorite take on the matter came from the ESPN.com article where Ed Wade said:

Astros general manager Ed Wade said a change was needed. He said making the move now will give the Astros a chance to evaluate "other facets of our operation" heading into the offseason.

I think the real problem here was that the evaluation of the facets of the operation BELIEVED (key word) that they could CONTEND (another key word) in 2009.

I'm all for miracle stories in this century, but what they were expecting Cooper and his staff to achieve was almost criminally insane with the lackluster talent Wade put around him.

1. They were asking Cooper to trot out a starting pitcher who had not pitched in 2008 (Russ Ortiz)
2. They expected a pitcher who has had an unfortunate career turn yet even worse (Mike Hampton) somehow magically channel 1998
3. They overworked and overused their ace (Roy Oswalt) and turned him into a middle of the rotation starter.

The Astros ended up tied for 23rd (tied with the Marlins) in Quality Starts coming into tonight.

Moving along from the rotation, next they had Jose Valverde get hurt and that crippled a bullpen whose reliable relievers were only LaTroy Hawkins and Valverde. The Houston Astros lead the majors in blown saves with 26 entering play tonight.

Oh and that spectacular offense chock full of amazing hitters? They rank 24th in OPS at .723. While one contender is worse than them and still keeping their heads above water (San Francisco is 30th, are you surprised?), the Giants have elite starting pitching to sustain themselves with--the Astros had Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz on the mound. 72 of their 130 (55.3%) home runs (ranks 26th by the way) have come from three players: Carlos Lee (26), Hunter Pence (24) and Lance Berkman (22). No other player is over 11 home runs, Tejada (11) and Blum (10) are close.

Bottom line is, Cooper was set up to fail. If Ed Wade really thought this team should contend and win now, that's his fault, and it's about time he's held accountable for the decisions he's made. However, just as culpable has to be the ownership group if they were encouraging the baseball people that this team, as currently constructed, could win over 82 games.

Maybe they thought when the Astros put up three straight winning months, an 11-10 May; a 16-11 June followed by a 15-12 July, put them only one game under .500 at 51-52. Is that a contending ball club? The answer was a resounding no as they fell apart to a 19-27 record over the last two months.

The decision that Wade and his people "can evaluate what they have and what they need over these next 13 games" seems like a cheap excuse after putting together a club that couldn't contend. The Astros are an arm, two bats and many relievers away from fielding a team that can contend next year. Even with those they will still have more questions than answers moving into 2010.

But, this isn't the first failure in Houston and I have a feeling it won't be the last.

When not claiming Fantasy Baseball expertise, Ryan writes about Mid-Major College Basketball at SienaSaintsBlog.com. Ryan doesn't hate the Astros, he grew up one town away from likely Hall of Famer Craig Biggio.

Cy Youngs and Pitch F/x

2009-09-21T08:43:00.002-04:00

Looking for Monday morning reads? Check out my two posts up this morning.

- Here is my THT fantasy article this week. I take a look at the best in the business when I compare Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum.

- Over at Yawkey Way Academy I take a look at the Pitch F/x numbers for Daisuke Matsuzaka in his last two starts compared to a start before he went on the DL. There is some encouraging signs for sure.

2009 - Drafting in Hindsight

2009-09-20T11:25:00.002-04:00

If you had been lucky enough to draft first or second in your league this year there's a fairly good chance that you would have had the option to draft the following team;

R1 - Albert Pujols
R2 - Tim Lincecum
R3 - Dan Haren
R4 - Matt Kemp
R5 - Joe Mauer
R6 - Bobby Abreu
R7 - Aaron Hill
R8 - Jonathan Broxton
R9 - Zack Grienke
R10 - Jason Werth
R11 - Matt Cain
R12 - Adam Wainwright
R13 - Andre Ethier
R14 - Heath Bell
R15 - Mark Reynolds
R16 - Ryan Franklin
R17 - Wandy Rodriguez
R18 - Chris Carpenter
R19 - Jason Bartlett
R20 - Michael Bourn

Isn't hindsight fun? Pick up Ben Zobrist early in the season to cover for Bartlett and somebody like Jason Varitek (who got off to a hot start) to cover for Mauer and you've got yourself one heck of a fantasy season. Note that it's more important to strike gold on some of the mid to late rounders on this list than on the guys at the top because even if your 3rd round pick wasn't Dan Haren he probably gave you pretty good value but your 18th round pick probably didn't come close to providing the value that Carpenter has. For instance, the first place team in my main league (14 team points league) has five of the rockstars listed above - Abreu, Bell, Reynolds, Wandy, and Carpenter - and he's been uncatchable since the All-Star break. Abreu has been nice but it has really been the other four guys who have catapulted him into the lead.

So what about you? Anybody else have several of the players on this list? How's your team doing? Anyone succeeding without the help of these guys?

Randy Wells, Welcome to Jordan's Basement

2009-09-17T15:24:00.003-04:00

Less than one month ago, I wrote about my excitement about Randy Wells, and how he's been performing well above expectations this season.

Randy Wells is a slightly opposite case, merely because his ERA stands at a very respectable 3.66. While Wells doesn't have any chance-based factors going against him(like a high BABIP or strand rate, or a excessively low HR/FB%), he's doing the important things well. The amount of guys he's striking out is well ahead of the amount he walks (a 2.63 K/BB), and his groundball rate is above average (48.6%).

What I really like about Wells is that his minor league strikeout rate tells me has the potential to equal Happ's current K/9. If Randy can return to a 7+ K/9 and keep his excellent control(only 2.14 BB/9), he could eclipse the magical 3.0 K/BB threshold. Combine that with his groundball rate, and you have an excellent sleeper for next year.

Today's Cubs game is now in the Top of the 4th, as Wells just surrendered a crushing Grand Slam, helped by his 5 walks in less than 4 innings.

What was once an excellent K/BB ratio (2.63) was just now fallen to a shade above 2.0 (88 Ks to 43 BBs).

Looks like the honeymoon is over, folks.

Thoughts on the Red Sox 2010 Defense

2009-09-17T09:05:00.002-04:00

Head on over to Yawkey Way Academy and check out my new piece on the 2010 Red Sox defense. It could have some implications in fantasy regarding who returns to the Sox and who they may add to improve their defensive woes.

Also while linking out I should mention this article at THT about Matt Kemp and potential warning signs in his numbers.

MLB Accessories at AccessoryGeeks.com

2009-09-16T12:54:00.002-04:00

Head over to Accessory Geeks and check out a full selection of MLB licensed accessories. They have a great site with a good layout and accessories for almost all phones and also iPods. You can also see that they have cell phone cables and HDMI cables on top of cases, chargers and batteries. Check it out today and look through their Fall Discount sale and see some great sale prices (check the memory cards)

There is also live chat to check what accessories work with what phones or electronics.

Justin Morneau out for 2009

2009-09-15T12:32:00.003-04:00

Justin Morneau has a stress fracture of his L5 vertebrae. This news ends his 2009 campaign and really hurts teams trying to lock up a fantasy title in 2009. The question that the rest of us need to look at is how will the effect 2010 for keeper leagues and redrafts. You can see where I thought he was valued before the injury at THT in a comparison to Aaron Hill.

The injury does not require surgery, but a 3 month recovery time before he can return. That puts him to January before he can start baseball activities. If your keeper selections are due before then I would suspect Morneau is not going to be a top priority for you. He isn't worthless, but he isn't a sure thing either.

Sean Casey also experienced a similar injury in 2006 and was able to return to normal after that. There is no predicting what this will do to his skills or his abilities, but he has a full off season to recover and work from January at getting back in game shape.

Invest in the Class of 2005

2009-09-15T05:45:00.001-04:00

The acclaimed draft class of 2005 has produced a ton of stars and soon to be stars.

It did not appear to start well with Joey Devine being the first to make his big league debut. Devine became the first pitcher in major league history to give up a grand slam in each of his first two games. And the Yankees drafted a player who is now a Kansas Jayhawk.

However this class has and appears to be ready to produce a lot of impact players.

The Elite
Justin Upton (#1 overall pick) and Ryan Braun (5th overall) are the elite players from this class. You've heard everything about these guys. Upton offers plus plus power and top speed as an outfielder. You're expecting 20-20 season at least from Upton and could see a 30-30 season in a few years. Meanwhile all Ryan Braun did his rookie year was lead the league in slugging percentage. He will probably have his second consecutive 100+ RBI season and his next home run will be his 100th. He has taken more walks and also consistently produced tons of doubles and even a few triples. He is going to enter his age-26 season next year and should have an elite level player prime.

You will be elated to get Braun later than 4th overall in a league next year and if you can nab Upton in the second round, where his developing skills and young age may take him to a new peak, you would already have a stocked outfield.

Braun originally played third base at Miami and was developed for some time until being moved out of necessity to the outfield. A player who will likely stay at third base for a long time and could break out next year is Ryan Zimmerman, another member of this class. Zimmerman is a gold glove defender with a plus bat. He is on pace to have his second 100 RBI season and has is career best OPS for a full season this year. His only concern is that he has recorded triple digit strikeout years every year except for an injury riddled 2008. He will be entering his age-25 season next year and could prove to be the best third baseman in the NL East.

This last 'elite' player also lost part of his 2008 season to injury. Troy Tulowitzki was expected to be a francise carrying shortstop and has proven to be so in his brief time in Colorado. Tulo came on to the scene in 2007 with a .291/.359/.479 season and 99 RBIs. He finished behind fellow 2005 draftee Ryan Braun for rookie of the year. This year, Tulo has shown his plus power again and a new facet of his game: speed. He did have a very good chance to go 20-20 with 17 steals so far this year but injured his lower back this week. Even if he doesn't make it there this year, he will have a good chance to do it next year and with his cozy hitters park he will be a legit power option for years to come at short.

The Guys We Know

Good:

Jacoby Ellsbury has a career high in stolen bases and triples this year. He has increased his OBP and SLG each of his two years as a starter. He appears to to have okay power and probably will continue to be a big steals player.
Matt Garza showed signs in 2007 of being a very good starter and has continually built on that. Garza has improved his strikeout rate with the Rays this year while decreasing his 'hits per 9' by 0.5. The walk rate has increased a little but Garza will be a good breakout candidate for the next two years.
Yunel Escobar has proven to be very useful this year. Escobar has some power and great OBP skills drawing close to a 1:1 K:BB ratio over the last two seasons. This is his third straight 20+ doubles season and he has increased his home run output every year in the majors. Expect these to continue as he enters his age-27 season.

Bad:

The 2005 MLB.com scouting report on Chris Volstad said, "Mixes pitches well w/ good command. Smart kid w/ a big ceiling, he goes right after hitters." The problem this year is he's gone after hitters, and the hits are going over the fence. Volstad has given up 28 home runs this year and has regressed in ERA and WHIP. Volstad had five straight starts in August where he could not get out of the 5th inning (1-2 9.61 ERA in those starts). That forced the Marlins hand to put him in Triple-A. He got shelled on Sunday and his next start is in question. The one positive is that his strikeout rate and his strikeout to walk rate have been better but he gives up too many long balls.
Micah Owings' MLB.com scouting report started by saying "Built like Kris Benson." That has been a bad omen for his career, as a player who has had two striaght years of 5+ ERA. Owings has proven to be more deadly in a high leverage situation with his bat rather than his arm. Owings owns a career .296/.328/.538 line in 109 games with 8 home runs. Unfortunately those homers go to waste in all leagues.
Now, you see what you are going to get from Mike Pelfrey. An ERA over 4, about 5.0 K/9 rate and a hit rate higher than his innings pitched. You're going to get an average strikeout to walk rate too but there's nothing that says he's going to break out and be an "ace" that the Mets drafted with the 9th overall pick. This is all alright for a 5th starter on a contender, but is that all he is? If so, is he a fantasy option? He will be a player you decide on in 2010 to bench/cut or start at home against weak offenses.
Alex Gordon torched the minor leagues in 2006 with a line of .325/.427/.588 with 29 HR and 101 RBI, his only full season of development. He was labeled as a can't miss prospect. Two below-average seasons, one hip surgery and demotion later; he is being labeled as a bust. I don't think we have seen the best of Gordon yet but we will have to soon. Gordon, in a peak year, is capable of producing up to 20 HR, 10-15 steals and a .280 average. If it is a low cost, Gordon would still be a cheap investment in most leagues and bring a high reward when he peaks.
Kevin Slowey was called "A clever, methodical control pitcher" in 2005 when he was the Twins 2nd round pick. Slowey has a good walk rate but not an elite strikeout rate. He would be a serivcable starter if he can keep his ERA under 4. Considering he is a control pitcher he is doing a good job but do not expect him to make that jump into being an ace-like starter.

We Need To See More From These Guys
We need to see Clay Bucholz make 30 plus starts in the big leagues and 2010 might be our year. Bucholz has reduced his WHIP considerably after blowing up to a 6.75 ERA in 16 starts the previous year. Unfortunately, Jay Bruce got hurt at Citi Field and we haven't heard much from him since. After exploding onto the scene in 2008 as the "next Ryan Braun" to pick up, he quickly fizzled into a low average/some power Adam Dunn type player. If he can keep his average in the .250s he will be a legitimate 30+ HR option for most fantasy clubs over a full season.

Ricky Romero hit the rookie wall this year and hit it hard. All that being said, he has put up a productive fantasy season while being a 1$ or waiver wire player. A pre All-Star break 7-3 with a 3.00 ERA/1.26 WHIP was good to look at. If you didn't sell high you were the recipient of a 5.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. The walk rate rose and strikeout rate has faded; Romero probably is a 4.00 ERA or less type player, but we will see what he can do in his second full major league season to prove it.

I would buy into Nolan Reimold but I would like to see him repeat this in 2010 as well. With relatively little Triple-A seasoning (31 games), Reimold came up and has become a fixture in the outfield. Reimold delievered a 25 home run year in Double-A in 2008 and has had 20 plus double seasons every year except for one. He appears like he will reach 20 doubles in the big leagues this year and it wouldn't be shocking to start to see a few of those to start going over the fence in Baltimore. His upside is 20-25 home run power and .270+ average entering into his age-26 season next year. I would still like to see him prove he is a .835 or better OPS player next year.

Jed Lowrie has lost most of this year to injury. He appears to have a future as a doubles machine but little else. Colby Rasmus could be the Rookie of the Year. Rasmus profiles as a .260 hitter with close to 20 home runs, especially that if he hits in front of a guy like Albert Pujols in his future. Brett Gardner won the center field job to start this year, then lost it. Gardner profiles as a light hitting speed guy. Mat Gamel has been surrounded with hype. Gamel could not cash in when he debuted to a .237/.333/.404 clip. It also doesn't help that he is a butcher at third base; but the Brewers have a lot of DH-types who have found a position when they hit. 7th rounder Will Venable has snuck into the conversation with a great second half (.291/.345/.514 entering Monday's play), he should be a starter in 2010 so we will see what he can do in a full season.

Coming Soon
Cameron Maybin won the job in the spring, but the Marlins had seen enough by May. Maybin is back with the club for September and should have a fair shot to win and maintain the center field job again next year. Trevor Crowe appears to be on track to be a below average outfield option and has not fared well in a brief debut. Sean West appeared to be rushed and has played as a below average pitcher this season. West has not pitched an inning in Triple-A and probably needs a little more development before he can be an impact arm. Jordan Schafer hit the ground running in his Opening Night debut but thudded just as fast. He hurt himself in the Braves home opener and then had surgery on his left wrist. Schafer has had the development stunted due to injuries this year and of his own doin g last year. If Gaby Sanchez gets a shot at the first base job in 2010, he better cash in on it. If he doesn't, Logan Morrison might pass him. Sanchez has a good shot though, he put up 16 home runs in 85 games after missing a month with a knee injury. Jeremy Hellickson appears to be the next Ray in line for the 5th starters role. Hellickson split time dominating Montgomery and Durham and could be an interesting fantasy option in deep leagues.