Is Google's Android Coming Apart At The Seams?
Apple (AAPL), one of Google's primary smartphone rivals, just successfully launched the second version of its iPhone, and its app platform -- also a key part of Android -- is better than we had expected.
Meanwhile, much of what we've seen or heard about Android lately has a touch of uncertainty and doubt. Some developers feel shafted by Google, which hasn't updated its software kit in a while, and hasn't been answering many questions. Other developers aren't going near Android with a ten-foot pole until there's an actual phone on the market, and are devoting their resources to the white-hot iPhone platform instead. And even Sprint Nextel (S), Google's biggest U.S. carrier partners -- in theory, one of its most important allies -- seems like it's starting to get impatient.
Some recent developments:
- Sprint Nextel's Android lead Jake Orion gives an interview to Android site AndroidGuys, and then, likely under pressure from his bosses, makes the site take it down.
Why? In his interview, he's sometimes critical of Android, mixing enthusiasm and praise with sharp jabs. He notes that Android is not "providing unknown magic other OSes are quantum leaps behind on," that in "many cases their competition is ahead," and that Android needs "a more proactive and direct linkage to the carrier's network and service requirements."
We can't help but wonder if Android is trying to treat the carriers as more of a dumb pipe than they'd like, and not totally embracing their thirst to sell their own branded services, like Sprint's mobile TV service, ringtone/music store, homepage, etc., whether customers want that stuff or not.
Why might Sprint be especially antsy? Because Google is spending so much time appeasing T-Mobile, its first launch customer, that Sprint won't be able to launch an Android phone in time for the crucial holiday shopping season, the Wall Street Journal reported last month.
- Some Android developers are feeling shafted.
Not all of them, but some. One reason: It's been a while since Google updated the software kit it provides to developers. Or has it? Google is supposedly distributing an updated version of its kit to select developers under non-disclosure agreements, which is leaving non-favored Android coders feeling a little left out. Reaction:
"...This was a huge oversight on Google's part. I only hope that they realize the stress and hardship they have put on those who have supported them the most," says one coder, Ken Adair, on Google's Android Discuss message board.
"I was looking for a change of the mobile ecosystem, with Google's leadership. But what we have is the same old, closed mobile ecosystem," says poster Shane Isbell.
Other developers have been more understanding. But part of the problem, from what we've deduced: Google's complex relationship with many partners makes it tricky for them to answer every question. That doesn't mean it's a good thing that it's ignoring its developers. But 100% transparency is unrealistic.
- Other developers/companies aren't even bothering with Android, because it's not a real market yet.
In the past few weeks, we've talked to several mobile and Web developers, and we've asked as many as possible if they're working on anything for Android. Few, if any, are paying much attention to it. Why? Because there's no phone on the market yet, and no customers yet.
This isn't a terrible thing -- Android's success will be predicated on a lot of factors, including how sexy its gadgets are, how its carrier partners price their phones and service, how well Google's built-in apps work, etc. But if Android phones launch and all of the attention is still focused on the iPhone platform, Google could have to push harder to get attention and developer investment.
Conclusion:
Building any platform is a lot of work, and any time there's as many people involved as there are with Android, toes will get stepped on. It's possible that there's truly great stuff going on that we're not hearing or reading about -- either because it's under non-disclosure, because it's still half-baked, or because we don't hang out with the right people. But from where we sit, it looks worrisome
Know more? Are we totally off-base? Work at Google and want to talk? Let us know in the comments below, via email to dfrommer@alleyinsider.com -- confidentiality guaranteed -- or via our anonymous tips box.
See Also:
What Google Can Learn From The iPhone Apps Launch: More Games For Android
Android: We’re Listening To Developer Complaints. We Just Can’t Do Anything About Them
Apple Guy John Gruber: Rooting For Google Android, But Expectations Low
I think Google's willingness to take carrier input on their Android & its SDK is also worrisome -- do you think Steve Jobs consulted with AT&T on the iPhone SDK? I don't think AT&T has had any say at all in either the iPhone OS X or SDK, which is one reason that they are so great. Allowing a carrier, who's interests are diametrically opposed to the end users, any say so is a fatal flaw.
Also, I believe another reason that Google is focusing on T-Mobile more is that they're slated to release the HTC Dream on October 1st, which will be the first officially released Android-based phone. If there really are so many developers deciding not to develop for Android (and forgoing a piece of the $10 million prize that Google is offering), then wouldn't it make sense that Google focuses on helping T-Mobile to release their phone properly?
I've been on Sprint (treo/palm os) for about five years and will be ditching them for the iphone in two weeks when my contract is up, even though I've been quite happy with Sprint (no problems with customer service; prefer their simply everything plan and their international plans to the AT&T plans; get better coverage at home and office than the other carriers, etc.). But they've got nothing that competes with the iphone - the instinct just doesn't cut it and the treos are of course dated.
Among the lawyers, accountants, techies, business people and creative types I hang around with in downtown LA and who have Sprint (not a huge number to be fair), it's the same story - pretty much all intend to ditch Sprint, and in the substantial majority of cases it is because of the poor phone selection. [As an aside, I am shocked by the number of Blackberry users who also intend to ditch their Blackberries for the iphone. I'd say 75% among those I know with Blackberries, with the ones who are not switching, generally wanting to do so, but cannot because of employer related concerns]
has something to do with Sprint, that he is in the position he claims to be and if so that this person was Jake Orion.
I mean did you see his email address? Ah, shit destroys the whole story?!
More to the point, Android, when it finally does works its way to market, will be competing against the 2.0+ version of iPhone Software, as it is not like Apple (or its rapidly growing ecosystem) is resting on its laurels) so its not like they have the luxury of delivering 1.0 functionality into a competitive market of sleeping giants.
Personally, if I were Google, I would focus on two segments for an initial beachhead:
1) Pick one carrier to optimize a 1.0 deliverable around. This is the proving ground for other carriers that Google has the chops for this type of solution. In other words, what they are doing with T-Mobile, feels right even if it pisses others off.
2) Focus on non-carrier dependent types of devices, like Wi-Fi powered tablets, information screens, VOIP-based walkie-talkies, etc. as these are potential disruptors, and also out of bullseye of Apple, RIM and Nokia.
For some fodder on the essential goodness of the iPhone 2.0 experience, check out my post:
iPhone 2.0: What it Means to be Mobile
http://thenetworkgarden.com/weblog/2008/07/iphone-20-what.html
Cheers,
Mark
It will be curious to see how Sprint deals with this. From their XOHM rhetoric they seem to be ok with acting like a dumb pipe for data which would be a huge boon for something like Android.
I, however, remain skeptical that an open alliance of so many (including direction competition) will result in an elegant solution.
And forget about Google releasing a phone on their own. They are not willing to take the risk associated with production and selling of physical goods; they do not have the right mindset, and it's not their style. (Also, can you imagine their current customer service policies applied to the real world with real customers and real products?)
Maybe this could work if they'd buy a handset maker, but even then it does not match their style. And the risk still remains high.
1. The Eminently and Frequently Updated, Living and Breathing OS X - build on an already solid foundation based on decades of work. Easily updated on every iPhone. Will Android or Microsoft Mobile phones be as easily upgraded? Probably not as evidenced by Microsoft's own experience. The iPhone user is secure in knowing that their iPhone won't be outdated and left in the dust by future versions of the iPhone (unless hardware is so advanced). To get an updated Windows Mobile phone, you have to buy a new one - often at cost.
2. Free Excellent Development Tools - the best in the business, the lowest cost in the business, the most tried and true kickass in the business, which have been decades in the making. No need to pay $5000 to $15,000 to become a developer for Nokia or Symbian.
3. Built-in App Store, Music Store, Movie Store - right on the iPhone. It is so simple and fun to use.
4. True Top-to-Bottom Whole Widget Design with total integration of hardware and software. Whoever builds Android phones will be at so great a disadvantage. They don't have the software skills that Apple has.
5. The iPhone Billion Dollar Ecosystem. This is the most difficult to duplicate. There are tons of 3rd party accessories for the iPhone. There are only a few for the Zune - which tend to sit on the shelf unsold. There are even fewer for any other manufacturer's Android phone. Accessory makers make tons of money building products for the iPhone. Other phones? Hardly any.
6. Perfectionistic, Rapid iPhone fans and users. Anything lesser than the iPhone is toast. Android is already lesser than the iPhone.
7. Lower subsidized cost and higher profit margins than competitors. The $199 price point puts enormous pressure on other manufacturers. It squeezes their margins hugely. Look at poor Palm being trapped in the mix. Why would someone buy a Treo that costs MORE than the iPhone? Why would you buy a Blackberry that costs more than the iPhone? Right - customers won't. No smartphone is attractive enough to get the huge subsidy that the iPhone gets from AT&T and other carriers. Apple makes more than $400 per iPhone sold for $199. Others? I doubt it.
8. Apple has been in the OS business far longer than Google has been. Thus, unlike Google, things are NOT HALF-BAKED. OS X is the culmination of decades of OS developement and design - not one year into the making. It takes years and years to get an OS working. Look at how long it took to develop Mac OS X from its beta 1 version. It is NOT easy to build from scratch - even if basing it on Linux. Even if you copy, if you don't think it deeply through, it looks BIZARRO - not the smooth operating feel of the iPhone OS X.
9. Hundreds of Thousands of developers on the iPhone and Apple's very generous profit margin for developers. Apple's 70% revenue cut for developers is very very generous - compared to other 3rd party and carriers who want to give developers only 30 to 50% of the revenue. Will other's follow? If it is a carrier, I don't think so. They are the ones selling music tracks for $3.00 apiece and think customers will buy. Apple also has a huge headstart in getting developers experienced and running on the iPhone platform. Apple's Developer Expo in June is a big event. Will Android attract more?
10. Apple's iPhone platform is one platform with one form - the iPhone. The Android will come in all sorts of sizes and shapes. This makes it far more difficult to develop an Adroid app that can run on all its versions.
etc. etc. etc.
Apple is like the new Sony. Some day, someone will take their candy and they will fade. In the mean time, their business burns bright... but they are a small (albeit influential) segment of the overall mobile market. If anything, it's RIM that should be concerned about Apple.
Google vs. MSFT is the name of the game for Android. MSFT, like Apple, has been in the OS business a long time, and the mobile market since the mid 1990's. Relationships and established market clout go a long way in the mobile industry (Apple is borderline consumer electronics - not necessarily a bad thing, mind you). MSFT, however, seems endemically lazy in their design and ability/willingness to compete these days so Android has a real chance.
Really? 32 years, though ups and downs, and they're still going. I think the opposite is true - Apple will keep doing what they do best, even through more ups and downs, far into the future. Apple is nimble - Sony is anything but.
Sony may not be nimble (now), but they've been around 50+ years with lots of ups and downs and are also still doing what they do best. As you know, Sony used to be THE name in personal electronics when it came to hip and fashionable. Now that's becoming Apple. Given the change of technology, probably within 10 years it'll be some other company. That's all I'm saying. Both Sony and Apple will probably both still be around (simply not the public darling, hence the "fade" comment I made) - just not the leader in that segment. This isn't a knock on either company, just a recognition of both the speed of technological change and the fickle nature of the hip/fashionable tech market.
@Bjorn
Good point. Hard to advertise to the general public as most would probably say "wtf is an android and what does it have to do with my phone?" (only without the internet abbreviation). Nokia doesn't advertise Symbian on their phone, and that's probably the closest naming analogue. An iPhone is a phone that happens to run something most people haven't heard of but don't care (OS X) because they latch onto the iPhone moniker. Windows Mobile is an unimaginative but easily understood name. What is a Google Android?
1) Apple decided to provide an SDK and an app store. This was a RESPONSE to Android, which had talked about providing a widely available market for mobile software.
2) Cellular operators have decided to support open mobile phones not preapproved/locked down to their particular services.
3) Symbian has announced that it will combine its platform and open it up by 2010.
So Google's entry into this market has been taken very seriously by the cellular market, and this will benefit consumers. The cellular industry is currently the second-most despised by consumers behind only cable providers, so the industry is ripe for a shake-up.
In addition, Google has some specific advantages of its own:
1) Credibility with the open-source community, including Google Summer of Code, Support for Firefox browser, etc. Note that the mobile edition of FireFox will be based on Google's interface specs.
2) Support for a large variety of platforms and price points. Many customers just won't pay what Apple wants for iPhone (and throwing the $199 price tag around ignores the $500 kickback that ATT throws at Apple when you sign your mandatory 2-year agreement. Apple 3G is actually MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE than the previous phone).
3) Price: Android is free, so it should enjoy a price advantage, particularly as more and more carriers release Android phones.
4) International market: Android will be the iPhone of China.
5) A wide variety of free applications and Google's dominance in the cloud computing space.
6) Portability: Soon, you will be able to download and flash Android onto a large variety of phones on your own, so the fact that Android is a platform rather than a phone + software mix will end up to be a strength rather than a weakness, especially as hackers interested in particular phone platforms optimize the software for that platform.
My $.02
MyTechSis Otomobil Ödüllü Seo Yarışması
MyTechSis Otomobil Ödüllü Seo Yarışması
sohbet
sohbet
sohbet
chat
msn
kimsesiz
belediye baskanlari
belediye baskanlari
belediye baskanlarimiz
belediye baskanlarimiz
belediye baskanlarimiz
belediye baskanlarimiz
belediye baskanlarimiz
belediye baskanlarimiz
erotik resimler
senato adayları
millet vekili adaylari
belediye baskanları
komik fikralar
manzara resimleri
tente